Pelosi Attack Won’t Affect Election Outlook; The Fed Has a Problem – AGF Perspectives


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Insights and Market Perspectives

Author: Greg Valliere

October 31, 2022

FIERY ATTACKS ON NANCY PELOSI persisted in TV ads during the weekend, despite the assault on her husband, raising an intriguing question: could this incident so disgust the public that it could alter the election outcome? 

POLITICAL STRATEGISTS WE TALKED WITH over the past weekend think the attack on the House Speaker’s husband may affect a few votes at the margin, but the simple fact is that most people have made up their minds — or have already voted.

WILL THIS INCIDENT AFFECT THE NATIONAL DISCOURSE? It might. But there’s a major new player — Elon Musk, who re-tweeted allegations that there was a third person in the Pelosi house, a rumor passed on by a notoriously unreliable site. Musk quickly took down his re-tweet, but it was a signal that he will continue to be a provocative (or reckless) presence on the internet.

AS FOR DONALD TRUMP, he sent out condolences on Saturday to the family of rocker Jerry Lee Lewis, but he did not comment on the Pelosi attack.

OUR GREAT FRIENDS IN CANADA frequently express dismay over the violence and heated rhetoric in the U.S. Our hope is that this volatility will subside, but our fear is that the Nov. 8 elections will revive charges of voting irregularities. It may take days — or weeks — to be sure who actually won, as the political temperature rises again in the U.S.

*   *   *   *   * 
WALL STREET JOURNAL REPORTER Nick Timiraos frequently reflects thinking at the Federal Reserve, and he has another significant piece in this morning’s paper. The economy, he writes, is flush with cash — individuals, state governments and businesses all have far better balance sheets now than they had before the pandemic, thanks to government spending and ultra-low interest rates.

THIS COULD PREVENT THE FED from quickly finishing its tightening. A 75 basis point hike is virtually certain this Wednesday, accompanied by a Jerome Powell press conference which may cite this pandemic stimulus as an impediment to cooling off the economy; last Fridays economic data looked solid.

THE STOCK MARKET RALLIED during much of October because of a belief that the Fed could finish its tightening this winter. The piece from Timiraos may reflect Fed thinking that cooling off the economy may be more difficult than officials  anticipated — and, therefore, the central bankers may have to tighten more than the markets thought just a few weeks ago.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

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About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

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2022-10-31 06:47:11

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